When do listings peak? In other words, when does the total number of listings hit its apex every year?
Well, it's an interesting question and it's definitely been affected by COVID.
Let me break it down for you:
In 2017, the peak was August.
In 2018, it was October.
And in 2019, it was September.
What do you think it was though for the COVID year 2020? And we're still in COVID, but at the beginning of the COVID years:
That number was shockingly (or not so shockingly) April — as March was when it was starting to gain some steam and when we had the shutdown. April was the peak of listings last year, and then it fell off from there pretty dramatically.
What do we expect for 2021 though?
We can't look at the seasonality of real estate anymore. The seasonality of real estate, where we used to know that spring and summer was the peak. And then it came over the top and fall and winter was the slow period.
That's not going to be true...
We know that Google is the number one search engine. But what's number two?
As you think about that question, let me give you another a stat that's really going to blow you away:
One-third of Americans -- according to a Harris poll survey -- say that they plan to move after COVID ends.
Think about that.
Think about the power of what that could do to the country in terms of real estate relocation.
So circling back to that first question I asked though, what is the number two search engine?
The answer is YouTube.
And here's what you can do, which is really, really interesting.
When you dive into YouTube today, search for your hometown. Be hyperlocal as we call it and do this quick search: "moving to [your hometown]."
Or you do could another search, which is: "relocation [your hometown]" and see what the results are.
You might find, like I've found, in area after area, after area, after area is that there are very, very little results...
Hey guys, a new study from NAR shows that...
75% of homeowners in America believe now is a good time to sell.
By the way, this is way up from where it was last year at the same time when that number was about 45%.
And what's the difference?
Well, one big difference is that we've had a huge run-up in prices. So sellers are starting to say, "Hey, I can see that this could be a good time to sell because prices have gone so high."
We're also seeing the record low 60-year lows on interest rates, which is another reason why home sellers are thinking they should sell and move up to their dream home. So that's a big reason why a lot of homeowners may be considering selling.
But even though they say it's a good time to sell, does that mean they are going to sell?
Yes, they are going to sell!
According to a new study done by Zillow, 1 in 7 homeowners are planning on selling their home in the next three years.
That's a massive number guys!
Hey guys, here's a question:
How many transactions would you guess in the marketplace are cash transactions?
The answer is 23% of all transactions in the real estate industry today are cash transactions.
Now, why is that important?
It's important because when we're talking to buyers and sellers, we need to be able to talk about the impact cash buyers have in the marketplace.
So for instance, when I'm sitting with a seller, sometimes sellers will say, "Well, Jim, I only want to sell to a cash buyer."
Now I'll say, "Hey, I get it. I would prefer that too when I'm a seller. Cash buyers don't have an appraisal requirement. And a lot of times you can close faster and it's a little easier. I get it. No lender involved. But here's the reality of those numbers: Today the latest studies show that 23% of buyers are cash buyers. So that means 77% are not. Only about one out of four buyers are cash buyers. If we only want to sell to a cash...
A new study from NAR shows what's going on with home buyers and it's really, really powerful data.
When we look at home buyers, these 2000 groups, we found that 52% of them had been pre-approved. So they've gone through the process and they're pre-approved.
When you look at the reverse of that number, that means 48% have not. About half the buyers you're competing with when you're in a multiple offer situation are just pre-qualified. They're not pre-approved.
Now you need to make sure that number one, you're having a conversation with your buyer about the importance of being pre-approved. And secondly, educating your sellers about the difference between the two.
One thing that I would encourage you to do is have a conversation with your buyers as a starting point. So here's what I would say with my buyers:
I'd say, "You know, we're still in an extremely low inventory market. Things are changing a little bit and a few more...
We are in what we might describe as a normalizing market. What does that mean?
We've been in an abnormal market for several years. Our market's been almost a vertical. We've had double digit appreciation for several years. And this has been a run that we've never seen before.
We're about 12 years into a 7-year cycle. So there's an expectation that we're starting to see the markets shift.
A lot of us are seeing a slowdown of showings and energy. And there's some data that backs this up. Here's some of that data:
New listings in the largest 50 metro markets across the country rose 5.1% last month.
And 17.3% of all listings in the country had a price reduction in the last 30 days.
That's in line with pre-pandemic levels, what you would expect in coming into fall. So that's like 2016-2019 levels. Last year, we didn't see that because the market was straight up. It was on a tear.
But right now sellers are starting to say, "Hey, wait a second....
Hey guys, we know the market's changing. And because of that, every single showing you have on a listing is becoming more important.
We don't have unlimited showings anymore. A lot of showings are slowing down. So when we have a showing, you gotta treat a like gold.
So here's a question:
Are you preparing your sellers with checklists, to-dos, and forms that will help them prepare for each showing and really maximize the potential of getting an offer from a buyer?
Really what the client should be doing is making the home inviting, making sure that you're showing that the home has been cared for and maintained well, and third, we want to make sure you have great curb appeal.
Now I'm going to read to you a few things that you might want to include on your to-do list or your checklist or your forms that you could build out.
Now, when you do this, and we talk about these things, I want you to think about the last like 5 or 10 homes that...
Hey guys, you probably saw that the amount of jobs that were added in August to the economy was actually way lower than expected.
A lot of people attribute that to the rise of the Delta virus and people may be slowing down on hiring. But one thing we can be sure of is that there are a lot of jobs available in America.
There's 10 and a half million jobs available right now. One thing that we're starting to see is unemployment benefits being turned off. Or at least not the incentives added by the federal government. So that might bring more people to work.
But right now we've got to deal with what's here now.
So job wage growth in America so far is up about 4.8%. The challenge is that inflation is also a 5.2%. So it's eating up all those gains. When we look at this in terms of what's going to happen in terms of the real estate market, Lawrence Yun — the chief economist for the International Association of REALTORS...
Hey guys, the market is shifting. If you can feel it in your market, you're not alone. One study that's backing this up is a study that's just been done by realtor.com. It shows that of the top 300 Metro markets in the country, 45 are seeing significant price adjustments happening.
I'll give you a couple examples:
Des Moine, Iowa — 32% of the listings have had a price adjustment
Midland, Texas — 28% of listings have had a price adjustment
Toledo, Ohio — 26% of listings have had a price adjustment
Metairie, Louisiana — 24% of listings have had a price adjustment
Where I live, Portland, Oregon — 20% of listings have had a price adjustment.
So not every market's having this yet. But we're certainly seeing sellers starting to be wise to the fact that buyers aren't just going to pay infinity anymore. There is buyer resistance to pricing. We've seen the largest run-up in pricing. Prices have hit an all-time...
Hey guys, a recent report shows that inflation is rising rapidly. It's the highest it's been in 13 years — up to 5.4% right now. When we look at that number, we should look at it from the perspective of: How does that impact us as REALTORS and our clients?
As REALTORS, the one thing we should be concerned with is if we took $100k and we put it in the bank and waited a year, based on this inflation rate, then at the end of the year, our $100k would only buy $94,400 in goods. So that's not a good thing. We need to make sure that we're investing in assets that are rising faster than inflation.
And we need to encourage our clients to do the same thing.
One of the best hedges against inflation is real estate. Which is good news for us.
We need to be talking about this with all of our clients that real estate is one of the best hedges against an inflationary market.
One of those reasons for that is that we can look at appreciation...
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