If you want a great marketing message that you can put out to your audiences today. I'm going to give you one right now.
And it's not from me. It actually comes from the NAR Economist Blog. If you haven't checked that out, check it out. I pull a lot of data out of there all the time.
But they had this great example of how much equity someone would have built up over a 30 year period.
And so they took an average home price and they went back 30 years ago and said, what was the average home price? What would be your guess?
The average home price 30 years ago was $103,333 — an odd number, but that's what it was.
Then they took somebody that put 10% down back then, had an average payment based on the interest rates at the time, and figured out how much equity they would have built up through equity appreciation and paying off their mortgage.
So what would they end up with net worth today just from their house?
The answer is...
Hey guys, a new study from NAR shows that...
75% of homeowners in America believe now is a good time to sell.
By the way, this is way up from where it was last year at the same time when that number was about 45%.
And what's the difference?
Well, one big difference is that we've had a huge run-up in prices. So sellers are starting to say, "Hey, I can see that this could be a good time to sell because prices have gone so high."
We're also seeing the record low 60-year lows on interest rates, which is another reason why home sellers are thinking they should sell and move up to their dream home. So that's a big reason why a lot of homeowners may be considering selling.
But even though they say it's a good time to sell, does that mean they are going to sell?
Yes, they are going to sell!
According to a new study done by Zillow, 1 in 7 homeowners are planning on selling their home in the next three years.
That's a massive number guys!
Hey guys, you probably saw that the amount of jobs that were added in August to the economy was actually way lower than expected.
A lot of people attribute that to the rise of the Delta virus and people may be slowing down on hiring. But one thing we can be sure of is that there are a lot of jobs available in America.
There's 10 and a half million jobs available right now. One thing that we're starting to see is unemployment benefits being turned off. Or at least not the incentives added by the federal government. So that might bring more people to work.
But right now we've got to deal with what's here now.
So job wage growth in America so far is up about 4.8%. The challenge is that inflation is also a 5.2%. So it's eating up all those gains. When we look at this in terms of what's going to happen in terms of the real estate market, Lawrence Yun — the chief economist for the International Association of REALTORS...
Hey guys, a recent report shows that inflation is rising rapidly. It's the highest it's been in 13 years — up to 5.4% right now. When we look at that number, we should look at it from the perspective of: How does that impact us as REALTORS and our clients?
As REALTORS, the one thing we should be concerned with is if we took $100k and we put it in the bank and waited a year, based on this inflation rate, then at the end of the year, our $100k would only buy $94,400 in goods. So that's not a good thing. We need to make sure that we're investing in assets that are rising faster than inflation.
And we need to encourage our clients to do the same thing.
One of the best hedges against inflation is real estate. Which is good news for us.
We need to be talking about this with all of our clients that real estate is one of the best hedges against an inflationary market.
One of those reasons for that is that we can look at appreciation...
Hey guys, did you know that the average rental price for a two bedroom home across the country, believe it or not drum roll is...
Can you imagine that? It's incredible!
But at that level, how much house could you buy? That's an interesting question. And it's a question that we can all answer.
So the $1,700, if you had 20% down with an average mortgage today would buy you a home priced at about $455,000, which is a shocking high number.
You know why that's so high? Because interest rates have dropped again to a 60-year low.
So instead of renting, somebody can actually go out and buy a house for $455,000. Now that's assuming they had 20% down, but let's assume they don't.
Let's assume they only have 3.5% percent down, which is a typical FHA loan. That might cut that number down by another a hundred thousand so maybe they could afford $355,000.
But wouldn't that be far superior to renting?
These are the kinds of conversations we...
There are a couple of numbers we need to look at to understand where the market's at and what's happening with the market.
Number one is the pending home sell index, which had a decrease of 1.9% compared to a year ago. And again, a 1.9% decrease compared to last month. Coincidentally, it was the same number.
But when we combine that with an increase in inventory of 4.1% the month before and a decrease in interest rates because they fell back below 3%.
So we have to look at this as the whole and say:
Why would there be a decrease in sales when we've had an increase in listings and a lower interest rate?
Why aren't buyers saying, "Hey, I have more to choose from and my interest rates are going down. Why don't I own the market?"
Buyers aren't doing that. In fact, they're pulling back a little bit from the market.
The reason is...
Buyer price resistance
Buyers are saying, "Hey, it's been 112 straight months of home price increases....
Affordability is on the tip of everybody's tongues right now.
Why is affordability so important?
Well, it's a measurement of how affordable it is for the average person in America to own a home.
NAR has studied this every single month and they gave us a Home Affordability Graph. And you might expect this, but home affordability has actually been going up because of something substantial, which is interest rates going down.
As interest rates go down, affordability goes up.
That's despite the fact that we've had actually super fast rising prices, right? Prices starting to go into double digit territory across the country. And then we see interest rates going down, which pushes affordability up.
But because home prices have gotten so high recently, that's actually starting to level off and come back down. But we recently had another upswing. So we're measuring a few things when we look at affordability.
When NAR looks at...
You'd think by now everybody that was going to refinance their home would have already done it.
Interest rates have been at record lows for months, right? But the answer is, that's not true.
There are 5 million homeowners in America that could benefit from refinancing. And here's how it breaks down, which is crazy:
450,000 of those loans have interest rates above 6.17%. Isn't that amazing In this day and age?
A million of those loans have interest rates above 4.39%.
And 3.6 million have interest rates above 4.21%.
So when we look at that, that's a huge opportunity for you to educate the market in your local area about the power of refinancing. Try partnering with a lender in your local market. And you guys could talk about that through a video or email — really reaching out and doing a good job with communication.
Now what's more powerful about this?
Did you know that when you refi a house, you don't get quite the best rate. You know...
"Should I wait to buy a house?"
The real question behind that is, do they think prices are going to go down or are they going to go up?
Buyers are always debating this in their mind. They think that there's going to be some kind of dip. But statistically, according to every model we're looking at today, that's not likely because this isn't a "housing bubble." This is a "housing shortage" that we're in.
This is a supply versus demand issue more than anything else. And actually, the experts in the industry have just upgraded their projections for what they anticipate sales prices to do in 2021.
Here's the latest update:
I'm going to compare this to what they said in January. In January, Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Zelman & Associates, and the National Association of REALTORS consensus was that home prices during 2021 would go up 5.3%. Somewhere higher, somewhere lower, but the consensus was 5.3%.
Should your buyer float their interest rate or lock now?
Interesting question. Some of you really gotta be working with your lender to have that conversation with them. But let me give you a little bit of what's been happening to date in January through roughly March 2021:
Let's look at the numbers and dig into them that I got from one of my lenders — who is an incredible rockstar in the lending world. His name is Brian Case and his team at Guild Mortgage gave me these numbers:
For the entire year of 2021 so far, a floating borrower — or somebody that took the gamble and threw the dice to see if they can get a better rate tomorrow than
they can get today — would've won 41% of the time. And they would have lost 58% of the time.
Because 48% of the time rates went down and 58% of the time they went up. So it's a gamble that may not be paying off.
Overall interest rates have gone up about a half percent since January....
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