When do listings peak? In other words, when does the total number of listings hit its apex every year?
Well, it's an interesting question and it's definitely been affected by COVID.
Let me break it down for you:
In 2017, the peak was August.
In 2018, it was October.
And in 2019, it was September.
What do you think it was though for the COVID year 2020? And we're still in COVID, but at the beginning of the COVID years:
That number was shockingly (or not so shockingly) April — as March was when it was starting to gain some steam and when we had the shutdown. April was the peak of listings last year, and then it fell off from there pretty dramatically.
What do we expect for 2021 though?
We can't look at the seasonality of real estate anymore. The seasonality of real estate, where we used to know that spring and summer was the peak. And then it came over the top and fall and winter was the slow period.
That's not going to be true...
Hey guys, here's a question:
How many transactions would you guess in the marketplace are cash transactions?
The answer is 23% of all transactions in the real estate industry today are cash transactions.
Now, why is that important?
It's important because when we're talking to buyers and sellers, we need to be able to talk about the impact cash buyers have in the marketplace.
So for instance, when I'm sitting with a seller, sometimes sellers will say, "Well, Jim, I only want to sell to a cash buyer."
Now I'll say, "Hey, I get it. I would prefer that too when I'm a seller. Cash buyers don't have an appraisal requirement. And a lot of times you can close faster and it's a little easier. I get it. No lender involved. But here's the reality of those numbers: Today the latest studies show that 23% of buyers are cash buyers. So that means 77% are not. Only about one out of four buyers are cash buyers. If we only want to sell to a cash...
Hey guys, we know the market's changing. And because of that, every single showing you have on a listing is becoming more important.
We don't have unlimited showings anymore. A lot of showings are slowing down. So when we have a showing, you gotta treat a like gold.
So here's a question:
Are you preparing your sellers with checklists, to-dos, and forms that will help them prepare for each showing and really maximize the potential of getting an offer from a buyer?
Really what the client should be doing is making the home inviting, making sure that you're showing that the home has been cared for and maintained well, and third, we want to make sure you have great curb appeal.
Now I'm going to read to you a few things that you might want to include on your to-do list or your checklist or your forms that you could build out.
Now, when you do this, and we talk about these things, I want you to think about the last like 5 or 10 homes that...
Hey guys, the market is shifting. If you can feel it in your market, you're not alone. One study that's backing this up is a study that's just been done by realtor.com. It shows that of the top 300 Metro markets in the country, 45 are seeing significant price adjustments happening.
I'll give you a couple examples:
Des Moine, Iowa — 32% of the listings have had a price adjustment
Midland, Texas — 28% of listings have had a price adjustment
Toledo, Ohio — 26% of listings have had a price adjustment
Metairie, Louisiana — 24% of listings have had a price adjustment
Where I live, Portland, Oregon — 20% of listings have had a price adjustment.
So not every market's having this yet. But we're certainly seeing sellers starting to be wise to the fact that buyers aren't just going to pay infinity anymore. There is buyer resistance to pricing. We've seen the largest run-up in pricing. Prices have hit an all-time...
Hey guys, the market's shifting. That's no surprise here — we've been seeing it for a few months. We're starting to see buyers put up some walls and say, "Hey, wait a second. I'm not going to pay infinity for a home."
And so buyers are slowing down their activity and we're seeing that. And it's also causing inventories to rise, which in turn, is causing sellers to try and avoid missing the boat so they're jumping in. This is causing inventories to rise even more.
So the whole market is starting to change. Not radically yet, but it will accelerate over time. And it's natural. It's normal. We're never going to have a straight up market forever. Right now, some people would argue that we're 12 years into a seven-year cycle.
Now for us, I have a question for you because you are either an agent that's market-driven or strategy-driven.
If you're market-driven, then high tide floats all boats. You do well in a great market and you do...
Hey guys, when you set a price on a property, how fast do you pivot if you got the price wrong?
And we all get prices wrong, I've gotten prices wrong. Anybody that's been in the industry for any length of time has gotten the price wrong.
So how fast do you pivot? How fast do you reach out to the seller to try to get that price adjustment?
There's a new study done by ShowingTime, which shows that the average across America, in our current market for there to be a massive drop in activity is five days.
After five days, activity goes straight down.
So we have a five day window to try to generate a lot of showings and hopefully multiple offers. If we get past that five days and we don't do an adjustment, we're probably going to have a hard time meeting the market where it's at.
So we have to lay the groundwork with sellers and have a conversation with them about this five day window. It's not two weeks. It's not three weeks. It's not a...
There are a couple of numbers we need to look at to understand where the market's at and what's happening with the market.
Number one is the pending home sell index, which had a decrease of 1.9% compared to a year ago. And again, a 1.9% decrease compared to last month. Coincidentally, it was the same number.
But when we combine that with an increase in inventory of 4.1% the month before and a decrease in interest rates because they fell back below 3%.
So we have to look at this as the whole and say:
Why would there be a decrease in sales when we've had an increase in listings and a lower interest rate?
Why aren't buyers saying, "Hey, I have more to choose from and my interest rates are going down. Why don't I own the market?"
Buyers aren't doing that. In fact, they're pulling back a little bit from the market.
The reason is...
Buyer price resistance
Buyers are saying, "Hey, it's been 112 straight months of home price increases....
We have two reports that have recently come out that show the market could be in a shift. And what we mean by that is that we've had this huge frenzy, right? But here's a couple of studies that kind of back up the fact that a lot of you in a lot of markets are starting to report.
You're seeing the market not be quite as intense as it's been, not quite the frenzy.
So here's the reports that we have:
The first one shows that the share of consumers who hope to buy a home in the next six months went from 34% a year ago to just 21% this year.
So people are starting to have some definite fatigue and resistance to pricing that's out there.
And related to pricing, which kind of goes right along with that study, is a new study that shows that even though we're still posting double digit gains in most areas, the rate of price growth is beginning to slow.
When we look at this, it's the second time it's happened in 13 months. And again,...
What are the most expensive per square foot homes in America?
According to a recent study recently done by REALTOR.com San Jose Santa Clara had the most expensive per square foot averages across the country.
Drum roll — $1,500 a square foot, not far behind are San Francisco and Oakland with $1,200 a square foot.
Now what's the least expensive in the country? Least expensive is Decatur, Illinois at $102 and Youngstown, Ohio at $120 a square foot.
There's a big discrepancy between the two.
The reason I bring this up is because we need to know what our average per square foots are in our local market. And it's going to change by subdivision. It's going to change by micro markets. But overall, you need to know what your county averages are and then your subcategories in different market segments. That way you can speak to this as an expert.
The other thing you need to be able to do is bring these into a conversation with buyers and...
Affordability is on the tip of everybody's tongues right now.
Why is affordability so important?
Well, it's a measurement of how affordable it is for the average person in America to own a home.
NAR has studied this every single month and they gave us a Home Affordability Graph. And you might expect this, but home affordability has actually been going up because of something substantial, which is interest rates going down.
As interest rates go down, affordability goes up.
That's despite the fact that we've had actually super fast rising prices, right? Prices starting to go into double digit territory across the country. And then we see interest rates going down, which pushes affordability up.
But because home prices have gotten so high recently, that's actually starting to level off and come back down. But we recently had another upswing. So we're measuring a few things when we look at affordability.
When NAR looks at...
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