Hey guys, some new interesting information from NAR regarding how far people move when they buy a new home.
For decades, the number was about 10 to 15 miles from where they were moving to where they were going to.
Now that shot up dramatically last year to 50 miles—an unheard of number. And where are people heading?
1. Small towns: up 9% from last year.
2. Rural areas: up 7% from last year.
So people are wanting to exit urban areas, kind of that urban exodus we've talked about for a long time. And why are they doing it? Well, they have remote working, they have a remote school, and they want to get out of the urban jungle. And affordability is a big issue. They can buy a much bigger house, much nicer house by going out to these rural and small town areas.
So what about your market? Are you starting to see this in your market?
Maybe you're on the flip side where you live in a rural market like I do and you're benefiting from people coming to you. And on the other side, maybe...
What's the number one reason somebody should be buying a home now as opposed to waiting?
Number one reason is this:
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR at a recent conference said this. He said that it's totally within the realm of possibility that we'll see interest rates at eight and a half percent interest next year in 2023.
Why? We know the Fed has already announced they're gonna do another rate increase in November and another one after that, then they're gonna take a pause. So two more increases are coming and we're already at 7%, eight and a half, maybe a low estimate. So when, although we feel like the interest rate is high, it's not high relative to history. Remember the average interest rate over the last 50 years has been 8%. We're at 7%. So when we look at it from a historical standpoint, it's not as high as we perceive it.
We perceive it to be high because we're basing it on the 60 year low. We just live to...
At this time of year, a lot of sellers will say something like this:
"Hey Jim, I think I'm just going to wait because I will probably get more from my house later anyway. So I'm just going to wait until spring or summer and see what happens then."
How do we address that comment or that concern?
I'm going to give you one script that's worked for me over the years. And it works by talking about the fact that when we're staying and rebuying in the same market, waiting doesn't make a lot of sense.
So let's put this in practice. You might say,
"Hey, I hear what you're saying, but here's something to consider, right? If you're buying or selling in the same market -- because the entire market's going up in value at the same time -- waiting to sell your home to buy another home just means the other home you're buying is also going up in value at the same time.
In fact, there's a little bit of a Delta that if you're buying a higher...
Zillow announced recently that they've stopped buying homes!
In their press release, they said they had supply chain issues and labor shortages, which is interesting because when you look at what they actually did in Q2 and Q3, where we've had kind of the same issues going on, they actually doubled the amount of homes that they purchased during that time compared to last year.
So why would they go from twice the amount they were buying last year to stopping on October 18th?
Some people are saying that one reason might be they're seeing market changes, just like we've been talking about. They're seeing a lot more listings coming to market which creates pricing pressure and competition. So they may not be able to come in and pay these high prices and then resell it at an even higher price. Because Zillow runs a flipping operation, right?
So we're actually seeing that. I've got a lot of students and a lot of parts of the country that...
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