Date the rate. Marry the house.

Now, what does that mean? That means that if we went back in time to a year ago, the market was a completely different animal. Right?

A year ago, buyers that were in the marketplace were experiencing multiple offers on every listing. They were being asked to sign escalation clauses that would maybe sometimes mean they were paying 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, a hundred thousand dollars more than the list price. People are being asked to do appraisal waivers, inspection waivers, appraisal gap language, non-refundable earnest money.

It was an incredible time to be a buyer in what we might call a frenzy market.

Now, fast forward to today:

The market's undergoing a complete shift, right? And what that means is there's a lot more to choose from. There's a lot more listings on the market. List prices are coming down in a lot of price categories. We're seeing a lot fewer buyers in the market. So that means that the buyers left have real power to come in ...

New study out from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that ARM demand has reached a 14-year high.

And now what's an ARM?

An ARM is an adjustable rate mortgage.

A lot of you that have entered the business over the last 10 years may have never used an ARM.

They became almost invisible for many, many years. Why? Because we've had the lowest interest rates in history. No one would bother doing an ARM. But over the last quarter, just to here in 2022 ARMs have gone up to a 14-year high.

So an ARM is an adjustable rate mortgage. Generally, it's set interest rate for the first 3, 5, 7 years. And then it resets based on the current rates of that time. There's a cap on it. Every loan's a little bit different, but here's some examples of what that looks like:

Right now, as I'm talking to you today...

The current interest rates are about 5.5% while the ARM rate is about 4.5%. So people are getting about a 1% discount for going into an ARM situation.

But 1% on a monthly b...

How do you normalize a price reduction?

People don't wanna feel like they're the only ones reducing their price. And some sellers may not be in tune with the market like we are. They may be assuming that the market's like it was six months ago. And they're the only person that's not selling right now.

Of course, we know that's not true. We know the market's changing. We know there's more inventory hitting the market than we've seen in a long time. We know interest rates are impacting the marketplace.

So how do we normalize a price reduction?

The way you do it is to show others in your market that are also reducing their price at the same time. So here's how you do it.

When you're talking to a seller, you can say:

"Hey, Mr. And Mrs. Seller, you know, we haven't had a lot of showings and that's probably directly to related to our price. We're seeing more competition. Interest rates are definitely eroding buyers' buying power. But I wanna share something with you t...

There's a new stat out that shows some unprecedented numbers. And the numbers reflect that home buyers entering the market today are paying 39.4% higher mortgage than they did last year at the same time.

Now, why would their mortgage go up almost 40%?

The number one reason?

Interest rates.

Also a bit of home price increases as well. But by and large interest rates going up seven of the last eight weeks. They've gone up so fast.

So when we look at this, some of our buyers may be saying, "Hey, let's pump the brakes on me buying."

How do you respond to that? Well, the response should be a reflection on what happens if they don't pull the trigger now and they wait. We know the Fed is already planning to do six more rate hikes this year, starting right now in May.

So as we begin to roll through the rest of the year, it's highly likely these interest rates aren't gonna go lower. They're gonna go much, much higher as the Fed tries to break the back of inflation.

So with th...

​​One thing we should all be aware of right now is that a lot of home sellers are reevaluating their price.

And one thing you should be monitoring in your own market area is the number of price adjustments that are occurring every 24 hours. Maybe on your hot sheet, your MLS data sheet, it's gonna show that number. Keep it a close eye on that, and then think about it with your own sellers.

Here's something that's interesting:

In the last few weeks we've seen 3.5% of all the sellers in America reduced their price.

Now that doesn't sound like a lot. But remember, we're coming off one of the hottest real estate streaks we've ever seen in our market.

But the market's starting to cool when it comes to pricing and people are starting to adjust to get ahead of the market. Typically we don't see price adjustments begin to happen at this level until July or August.

So why are sellers starting to adjust prices much, much earlier than ever before? It's because they're watching in...

I had a real estate coaching student come to me recently and asked me if she should invest her equity of her home into other real estate.

And it's a question she was getting from her clients as well.

So I explained this to her in a story form, so she could explain it to her clients as well.

So let's assume that you had $400,000 in equity in your home. And you leave $200,000 equity in your home and you pull $200,000 out.

Now, how do I pull it out? I refinance it or I get a HELOC loan for that $200,000.

So now I have $200,000. Of course, I'm paying interest on it. It's not free money. Let's assume I'm paying 5.5% interest today.

With that 5.5% interest, I now have to beat that rate of return in order to make money.

So let's assume then I go out and I take that $200,000 and I find an investment property. Maybe it's a duplex or a triplex, and I spent $700,000 on it.

That's reasonable because they gotta put 25% down generally on investment property. So that $200,000 would...

Here's a shocking number:

For every listing in America right now, on average, those sellers, when the listing goes live, are getting 4.8 offers. Let's call it five offers per listing.

It's truly one of the best times in history to put a home on the market, but will this be changing soon?

The answer is yes.

What will change this dynamic is a buyer's ability to afford the house. And what's impacting that right now is interest rates.

Interest rates are rising rapidly, approaching 5% in a lot of markets. And with that, it's pricing a lot of buyers out of the market. And if they're not priced out of the market, it's for them to readjust what they can afford downward. They can't afford that high price because the interest rate won't allow it.

So when we're looking at working with sellers, we need to tell them there's a five alarm fire going on in the real estate industry right now.

And it's interest rates. They're rising so rapidly that they're gonna put a crimp on seller'...

The Fed just raised interest rates, no secret there. It went up by a quarter percent. And it's likely that we're gonna see interest rates go much higher than they are today.

And so there's concern in the marketplace, like what are these interest rates gonna mean for the real estate market? There's a lot of differences between where we're at today in the market and where we've been in the past. For instance, right now we have the lowest supply of homes ever recorded. So that's gonna indicate that demand is probably gonna stay pretty strong and healthy because we need more supply to fill the demand.

But there could be a situation where you get to what's called buyer resistance. And that's where buyers say, "I can't afford to pay anymore for a mortgage payment."

We're not there yet. We still have high demand. And just by comparison, yes, rates are higher than they were a year ago certainly. But if we go back decade by decade, let's go back to the decade when interest rates...

Hey guys, quick market update for you:

We know that the CPI—the consumer price index—has risen dramatically. And right now it's running about 7% to 7.5%, depending on which economist you talk to.

That means that inflation's skyrocketing. The cost of goods and services is skyrocketing. Wages are skyrocketing. And so is the cost of getting a new loan or a new mortgage on a home.

Now, why are loans affected? They are affected because the federal government looks at this as a lever that they can push on the economy to slow the economy down and put the brakes on the growth in the country.

So since November of last year, through roughly today, we've seen a 300-point basis jump in what interest rates are costing Americans.

Now to put this in perspective because what does 300 basis points even mean?

It means that if you were gonna try to get November's interest rate today, it would cost three points. Three points, every a hundred basis points equaling one point. Each point is...

There's a "four alarm fire" happening in the real estate industry today:

What is it?

Interest rates.

Interest rates are rising extremely rapidly. Now we knew coming into 2022 rates were gonna rise. The anticipation was from Mortgage Bankers Association, NAR, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, etc. The consensus was 3.7% by the end of 2022.

But what has happened?

First week in January, rates went to 3.12%. Second week in January, rates went to 3.45%.

Wow — that's almost a vertical rise!

So what's the messaging here?

The messaging for our buyers and sellers is get off the fence and get into the market.

Now, why are rates rising so quickly?

Well, we know that the Fed had told us already that they were gonna raise rates three times in 2022 to fight inflation because inflation's at a 50-year high and 7% was the latest number.

So their #1 goal was to fight inflation.

They also announced they were gonna stop buying mortgage-backed securities as of March.

But now the word on ...