I have an important concept for you as we're coming into this challenging market with interest rates.
So I want you to think about something I call parity pricing. Let's paint a picture:
Imagine you're a buyer now. You have a $400,000 budget to buy a house. And you found one and got it in contract. Your budget for your payment is $1,767 a month. That's for principal and interest — we won't worry about taxes and insurance for this kind of demonstration.
So how we came to that number is if we were buying a home in April and we were lucky enough to get a 5.25% interest rate back then, that's what that payment would equal. But fast forward to today, we were shooting this around September where interest rates have shot up to 7.25%. In order for that buyer who only has a budget of $1,767 a month, or for that buyer to buy a house based on today's interest rate, how much would the seller have to come down to get to a parity...
New study out from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that ARM demand has reached a 14-year high.
And now what's an ARM?
An ARM is an adjustable rate mortgage.
A lot of you that have entered the business over the last 10 years may have never used an ARM.
They became almost invisible for many, many years. Why? Because we've had the lowest interest rates in history. No one would bother doing an ARM. But over the last quarter, just to here in 2022 ARMs have gone up to a 14-year high.
So an ARM is an adjustable rate mortgage. Generally, it's set interest rate for the first 3, 5, 7 years. And then it resets based on the current rates of that time. There's a cap on it. Every loan's a little bit different, but here's some examples of what that looks like:
Right now, as I'm talking to you today...
The current interest rates are about 5.5% while the ARM rate is about 4.5%. So people are getting about a 1% discount for going into an ARM...
Okay guys, you've heard me talk about forbearance. I'm going to give you another opportunity within this market that you're all going to want to take advantage of right now.
So we know right now there's 1.86 million homes that are in forbearance. It's about 3.5% of all the mortgages in America.
So when you look at that number, it sounds like a scary number. But 87% of those folks have 10% or more equity.
Now, here is the kicker behind that:
The 12-month period of time that the CARES Act provided is coming to an end for a lot of people. Hundreds of thousands of these properties are now having their forbearance ending.
And this is starting really at scale in September when 450,000 of these homeowners are now going to be at the end of their forbearance period.
Now here's the good news:
87% of those folks have 10% or more equity because we've had such a massive equity buildup over the past 12 months. So they can actually sell....
Hey guys, did you know that the average rental price for a two bedroom home across the country, believe it or not drum roll is...
Can you imagine that? It's incredible!
But at that level, how much house could you buy? That's an interesting question. And it's a question that we can all answer.
So the $1,700, if you had 20% down with an average mortgage today would buy you a home priced at about $455,000, which is a shocking high number.
You know why that's so high? Because interest rates have dropped again to a 60-year low.
So instead of renting, somebody can actually go out and buy a house for $455,000. Now that's assuming they had 20% down, but let's assume they don't.
Let's assume they only have 3.5% percent down, which is a typical FHA loan. That might cut that number down by another a hundred thousand so maybe they could afford $355,000.
But wouldn't that be far superior to renting?
These are the kinds of conversations we...
Are a ton of foreclosures about to hit the market?
The answer is absolutely not. Let me tell you why:
This is a myth that's happening among a lot of renters. People that don't own homes yet are all waiting for the shoe to drop and a bunch of foreclosures to hit the market. Let me tell you why it's not going to happen:
There is something called forbearance. And a lot of people did tap into it at the beginning of the pandemic. The experts thought that about 30% of mortgage holders would need to tap into it at the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, forbearance is where a lender gives you some level of grace.
They say, "Hey, you can stop making your payments for a while, or you can make a minimum payment or we'll tack on your payments to the end of the loan." There are a lot of different variations to it.
But the government said they want everybody to have a six-month opportunity if they've been struck by COVID or...
What percentage of Americans would you guess paid off their home?
Think about that for a second: Completely own their home, free and clear.
In other words, when you're driving down the street in your neighborhood, out of 10 homes, how many people have paid their home off and outright own it?
Would it be 2 homes, 3 homes, 4 homes?
The answer is 38% of Americans have paid off their home in full, which is absolutely amazing.
The equity for homes in America is off the charts. It's incredible. So that's good.
Now, why do I bring this up?
The reason I bring it up is because people that have equity in their home actually have a huge, powerful advantage when it comes to moving up to their dream home.
And here's why:
They can actually do something that a lot of sellers can't. They could go buy a home and finance their second home (what they're going to buy next). And they won't have two mortgages.
So they have no pressure on themselves when it...
Sometimes a seller will say to you, "Well, just sell it to a cash buyer. I don't want to deal with financing."
Have you heard that? We all have from time to time. When you have a seller say that to you, you need to arm yourself with good information so you counter that. And help them understand that the market isn't comprised of a ton of cash buyers.
The good news is that there are more cash buyers that there has been. We've seen a huge uptake in cash buyers. But the current number as of today, in all across the country, is that 25% of the sales done in the country are now cash buyers.
But what's the reverse of that number? The reverse of that number is 75% of the sales are not cash sales. So they're involving some level of financing. Which means that when we list a property, we have to sell it four times in order to create a sale.
We have to sell it to the market, to get them excited about that listing. That's creating that...
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