What's the number one reason somebody should be buying a home now as opposed to waiting?
Number one reason is this:
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR at a recent conference said this. He said that it's totally within the realm of possibility that we'll see interest rates at eight and a half percent interest next year in 2023.
Why? We know the Fed has already announced they're gonna do another rate increase in November and another one after that, then they're gonna take a pause. So two more increases are coming and we're already at 7%, eight and a half, maybe a low estimate. So when, although we feel like the interest rate is high, it's not high relative to history. Remember the average interest rate over the last 50 years has been 8%. We're at 7%. So when we look at it from a historical standpoint, it's not as high as we perceive it.
We perceive it to be high because we're basing it on the 60 year low. We just live to...
News from NAR (National Association Realtors) came out recently and they said that home sales are down 23.8%. But strangely, home prices are up 8.4%. So where's the conflict there? How are we having these crazy numbers?
Well, here's the reality — there's two reasons for it:
One is that we are still benefiting from appreciation that happened at the beginning of the year when interest rates were close to 3%.
And the second reason?
We're benefiting from low supply. We still are at a historically low supply, about 3.3 months of supply. Meaning if every REALTOR stopped working today, it would take 3.3 months of time for us to sell out that inventory.
So what's a healthy balance market? A healthy balance market is about six months of supply.
By the way, I want you to get this in your mind. It's completely different than the Great Recession. We entered the great recession with 11 months of supply. Strong buyer's market. We are...
Would it be crazy to buy a house now?
This is a question that people are gonna ask you. I've heard this question come up a few times just in my social circles.
I'm gonna tell you there's two key reasons why it's a great time to buy a house. Not just a good time, but a great time to buy a house.
1. You have more buying power than you've ever had in the last 10 years.
Think about the last year. Just last year, if you were gonna go buy a house, you're competing with 10 other buyers, you're always gonna be in a multiple opera situation. You're gonna have to come in with non-refundable more money, go over full price, have an appraisal gap language, remove inspections before you've even done an inspection. You were at such a disadvantage as a buyer.
Let's contrast that with today:
When you come in as a buyer, first of all, sellers are reducing their prices en masse. Plus, they're gonna reduce their price again, when you make an...
We know interest rates are rising, right? I'm in contract on a couple of different investment properties right now. I'm still out buying despite the market conditions. Actually, it's an opportunity for investors. And when I got to the point of finding out what my interest rate would be on one of these properties at duplex, I was told that it would be 8.5%.
And I about fell over! 8.5%, that's nuts, right?
And she explained to me that, well, you could pay points, get that down to, you know, 7.5%, or even 7.1%. And there was a lot of strategies around that, but it was gonna be expensive on the point side. So when we're having this conversation, buyers like myself are gonna immediately think my, if I'm gonna pay that kind of points, I want somebody to share that cost with me.
Who do you think it's gonna be? It's gonna be the seller. If the sellers are gonna want top dollar, like these Impressment property owners do of course, they might...
I have an important concept for you as we're coming into this challenging market with interest rates.
So I want you to think about something I call parity pricing. Let's paint a picture:
Imagine you're a buyer now. You have a $400,000 budget to buy a house. And you found one and got it in contract. Your budget for your payment is $1,767 a month. That's for principal and interest — we won't worry about taxes and insurance for this kind of demonstration.
So how we came to that number is if we were buying a home in April and we were lucky enough to get a 5.25% interest rate back then, that's what that payment would equal. But fast forward to today, we were shooting this around September where interest rates have shot up to 7.25%. In order for that buyer who only has a budget of $1,767 a month, or for that buyer to buy a house based on today's interest rate, how much would the seller have to come down to get to a parity...
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