A number that we should be concerned with right now in the market is 16.1%.
So what does 16.1% represent?
It represents the number of transactions that were canceled last month. The last time we saw a number that high was at the beginning of COVID when buyers really didn't know what was gonna happen. March, April, when COVID really went into full effect in our country in 2020. That's when you saw this same level of cancellations. And that's what we're seeing again right now.
So how do we tighten down offers so that sellers have some clarity that they know they're gonna get to closing?
I'm gonna give you several things to think about. You might have a few more. But one of the things is getting the disclosure statement signed as quickly as you can.
Most states require a disclosure statement. This is where we're the seller's gonna disclose everything they know about the house to a buyer. But not waiting around, not delaying getting that...
Why should a buyer buy a home in today's market?
If we don't know the answer to that, then it's gonna be a struggle to talk to buyers about why they should buy. Because everybody thinks they should wait:
"Shouldn't I wait for prices to come down? Shouldn't I wait for interest rates to come down? Shouldn't I wait for the recession to kind of come and go?"
There's gonna be a lot of those mindsets. And we have to be able to answer the question: "Why should I buy now?"
And really we have to sell ourselves first before we sell anyone else. So I'm gonna give you four reasons here that someone should consider buying now as opposed to waiting or not buying at all.
1. Some sellers are panicking.
Why are they panicking? Because they put their home on the market yesterday and they expected just to get overrun with buyers. Then maybe two or 3, 4, 5 days goes by and they still don't have multiple offers. They don't even have very many...
Date the rate. Marry the house.
Now, what does that mean? That means that if we went back in time to a year ago, the market was a completely different animal. Right?
A year ago, buyers that were in the marketplace were experiencing multiple offers on every listing. They were being asked to sign escalation clauses that would maybe sometimes mean they were paying 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, a hundred thousand dollars more than the list price. People are being asked to do appraisal waivers, inspection waivers, appraisal gap language, non-refundable earnest money.
It was an incredible time to be a buyer in what we might call a frenzy market.
Now, fast forward to today:
The market's undergoing a complete shift, right? And what that means is there's a lot more to choose from. There's a lot more listings on the market. List prices are coming down in a lot of price categories. We're seeing a lot fewer buyers in the market. So that means that the...
I had a real estate coaching student come to me recently and asked me if she should invest her equity of her home into other real estate.
And it's a question she was getting from her clients as well.
So I explained this to her in a story form, so she could explain it to her clients as well.
So let's assume that you had $400,000 in equity in your home. And you leave $200,000 equity in your home and you pull $200,000 out.
Now, how do I pull it out? I refinance it or I get a HELOC loan for that $200,000.
So now I have $200,000. Of course, I'm paying interest on it. It's not free money. Let's assume I'm paying 5.5% interest today.
With that 5.5% interest, I now have to beat that rate of return in order to make money.
So let's assume then I go out and I take that $200,000 and I find an investment property. Maybe it's a duplex or a triplex, and I spent $700,000 on it.
That's reasonable because they gotta put 25% down generally on investment...
One of my good friends told me about this incredible strategy that she's using with her buyers.
One thing that happens with buyers is when they come in, we tend to walk them through a conversation that has to deal with criteria. We qualify 'em of course, and we start talking about criteria.
And for instance, when we talk about criteria, here's an example of what we might say, "Well, what are you looking for? Are you looking for a three bedroom, two bath? How much square feet, what area of town?" And then ultimately we get to, "and what price range are you in?" And how did you arrive at that price range?"
We always come down to the price range.
Then they got prequalified with the lender, whatever, and then we try to fit round pegs and square holes.
So we look into the market and start telling the client about why they can't afford to be where they want or why they're gonna have to adjust their budget.
That's a hard conversation to have. And...
Here is a crazy stat that will be interesting for your sellers when you're sitting down to talk about a listing:
84% of the properties coming on the market are selling in less than 30 days across the country.
Now I would encourage you to dive deeper into your own local MLS and see what the number is for your local MLS. But it's probably gonna be somewhere in that neighborhood.
Now, another inverse number to that is what percentage of properties are staying on the market longer than six months? When you go back to 2011, that number would've been about 35%. Today, it’s 2%.
2% listings coming in the market are staying on for longer than six months.
You can just see how the market is so strong right now for sellers and how it's such an advantage to put your home on the market today as a seller.
Another great number to pair with these numbers is the fact that on average sellers are receiving 4.8 offers per listing. That's coming on the...
Here's a shocking number:
For every listing in America right now, on average, those sellers, when the listing goes live, are getting 4.8 offers. Let's call it five offers per listing.
It's truly one of the best times in history to put a home on the market, but will this be changing soon?
The answer is yes.
What will change this dynamic is a buyer's ability to afford the house. And what's impacting that right now is interest rates.
Interest rates are rising rapidly, approaching 5% in a lot of markets. And with that, it's pricing a lot of buyers out of the market. And if they're not priced out of the market, it's for them to readjust what they can afford downward. They can't afford that high price because the interest rate won't allow it.
So when we're looking at working with sellers, we need to tell them there's a five alarm fire going on in the real estate industry right now.
And it's interest rates. They're rising so rapidly that...
How many times when you're talking to a potential seller, do they bring up commissions today?
That conversation is probably happening more often than ever before today because it's a hyper competitive market. We're seeing a lot more commission conversations and people trying to negotiate our commissions to some degree.
So I had this great quote that was given to me by a Ninja student. Ninja is a great program. If you haven't taken the ninja class, highly recommend you do it. I've done it for my agents and brought them in twice to teach to my group. But they had a great quote here for dealing with the commission conversation.
So here's the quote (and it's so good):
"Hey, let me ask you this. I totally understand you're asking about commission but let me ask you just a quick question around that:
Do you believe that your house is gonna sell for a fixed price or do you believe it'll sell in a range of value depending on the negotiation...
Hey guys, quick market update for you:
We know that the CPI—the consumer price index—has risen dramatically. And right now it's running about 7% to 7.5%, depending on which economist you talk to.
That means that inflation's skyrocketing. The cost of goods and services is skyrocketing. Wages are skyrocketing. And so is the cost of getting a new loan or a new mortgage on a home.
Now, why are loans affected? They are affected because the federal government looks at this as a lever that they can push on the economy to slow the economy down and put the brakes on the growth in the country.
So since November of last year, through roughly today, we've seen a 300-point basis jump in what interest rates are costing Americans.
Now to put this in perspective because what does 300 basis points even mean?
It means that if you were gonna try to get November's interest rate today, it would cost three points. Three points, every a hundred...
One thing that we should do this year is cut the dead wood.
What does that mean?
It means we don't wanna be walking up a mountain, our mountain being our figurative goal set that we've set for ourselves and have a backpack full of rocks on our back.
Now, what is that backpack full of rocks?
Those are clients that don't wanna sell, that don't wanna buy, that are wasting your time, that are frustrating, that are angry people that we do not need to be carrying around on our backs anymore.
We need to cut them loose and work with people that really wanna buy and sell.
So going into the new year, how can we approach our business a little bit differently?
One is to work with ready and willing clients which sounds crazy, but it is so simple that it's obvious, right?
We need to work with ready and willing clients.
Having a ready and willing conversation is important. So I'm gonna give you my "ready and willing" conversation script when I'm...
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